oct-over… thank goodness

» Posted by on Nov 1, 2018 in Uncategorized | 0 comments

Well October is finished and what a ride it’s been. Looking over the month’s moves I wondered… why are yields trading as they are? In reality, over the month they have not done all that much. So what is the proverbial “flight to safety trade?” “Safety” to me implies an asset that yields something greater than CPI in my small mind. Maybe it’s the Dollar. Nice bump there. If the rate of inflation holds steady to easier, yields are likely to follow suit and this will reinforce existing monetary policy in my opinion.

7:00 AM EDT MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite Index W/W Change today was -2.5% vs. 4.9%

8:15 AM EDT ADP Employment Report: Actual 227,000 vs. Consensus 178,000

8:30 AM Employment Cost Index: Consensus 0.7% and actually it is 0.8% or the top the range previously it came in at 0.6%

9:45 AM EDT Chicago PMI: Business Barometer Index  was at 58.4 where previously it was 60.4

Now for Thursday:

7:30 AM EDT: Challenger Job cut report

8:30 AM EDT: Weekly Jobless claims: Consensus 212K vs. 215K

Productivity and Cost: Nonfarm Consensus 2.3% vs. 2.9%

9:45 AM EDT:  PMI Manufacturing: Consensus 55.9 vs. 55.6

10:00 AM EDT: ISM Mfg Index: 59.1 Consensus vs. 59.8 previously

10:30 AM EDT: EIA Natural Gas Report

4:30 PM EDT:   Money Supply and Fed Balance Sheet


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