New! Micro E-Mini Futures Coming Soon

» Posted by on Mar 12, 2019 in Announcements, Shop Talk, Uncategorized | 0 comments

We have the daily commentary below but thought we would start off with the announcement that you may or may not be aware of :New Micro Emini Futures

https://www.cmegroup.com/cme-group-futures-exchange/micro-futures.html

Stocks are steady this morning as bulls remain optimistic about U.S. and Chinese trade negotiations, as well as possible improvements in global growth during the second quarter of 2019.

There’s been a few comments that China is perhaps starting to show signs of improvement following several quarters of deceleration. It seems that Chinese exports have finally started to improve.

There also seemed to be more bullish optimism after hearing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on “60 Minutes” this past Sunday. In fact, I heard many large investors and traders yesterday saying that it now feels like a “Fed put” is in place. Meaning, the Fed will continue to pause and do what it can to help keep the stock market mostly supported.

With big brother having its back, this allows the bulls to more comfortably place additional money at risk inside the market. Other central banks are also turning more dovish in nature. Here at home, traditional U.S. economic data again appeared somewhat weak.

Retail sales data released yesterday, showed revisions lower for both the November and December numbers. In other words, fourth-quarter GDP probably grew at a slower pace than the 2.6% the Commerce Department most recently reported.

In fact, I heard Goldman Sachs economists recently lowered their forward looking Q1 GDP estimates to sub-1%. Hence, there’s still a lot of work ahead and nobody’s yet dropping the “all-clear signal.

As I’ve mentioned a couple of times as of late, it feels like the bulls have ratcheted things up, and we are going to stay in a trading range somewhere between 2,500 and 3,000 in the S&P 500.

There are some bulls who argue if we can trade to 3,000, we will quickly go to 3,200 as the “pain-trade” will clearly be to the upside and big-money players will be caught under-invested.

Perhaps the true contrarians are now the “optimists”?

As for today, the market will be digesting inflationary data released in the most recent CPI numbers.

Remember, the CPI is a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services such as gasoline, food, clothing and automobiles, essentially the CPI measures price change from the perspective of the purchaser.

Something else the trade will be closely monitoring today is the outcome of the UK Brexit vote.

From what I understand, MPs will go through an entire day of heated debate then vote and pass their verdict on Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to take Britain out of the European Union.

This is being called “the big one”. If MPs vote the deal down, one of two things is likely to happen.

The UK will either leave the EU on March 29th without a withdrawal agreement – or that departure date will be backed-up. If they vote in favor of the current deal, the UK will leave the EU on March 29th with things staying broadly as they are until December 2020, while the two sides hash out the details of a more permanent trade deal.

The economic strength of the European Union has started to gain more attention and is becoming more in doubt as of late, so the trade will be paying close attention.

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