Market Commentary

» Posted by on Apr 15, 2019 in Announcements, Shop Talk, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Stocks are trading near all-time highs and Tiger Woods wins his 5th Masters!

All in the world is right again…at least for the moment. Remember, this is a short trade week with the markets closed for Good Friday ahead of the Easter holiday.

Traders will be forced to digest a lot of headlines in a short number of trading days. We start today with the first official round of trade talks between leaders from the U.S. and Japan. The trade will also be keeping a close eye on continuing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said over the weekend that he believed the United States and China were nearing the final stage of trade negotiations, moving closer to what he said would be the biggest change in the economic relationship between the countries in 40 years.

In other words, his comments were extremely optimistic. Bulls are also happy to hear G-20 Finance Leaders, who gathered for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank spring meetings, agree that they expect global growth to pick up in the second half of 2019.

Again, a more positive outlook! I should note, odds of a Fed rate cut in 2019 have dropped from 51% down to 39% in the past week.

Bears are pointing to rumors that the entire Mueller Report, at more than 400 pages, could be released this week. I personally don’t see it as a game-changer in Washington, but it could create a wave of negative media headlines that cause a few bulls to pause.

As for traditional economic data, the biggest market movers this week will be updated U.S. Housing numbers, U.S. Beige Book, the Philly Fed survey, and updated U.S. Retail Sales data.

First quarter earnings will also be released by several large corporations, we start today with: Charles Schwab, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JB Hunt. Tomorrow the trade will be digesting earrings from a few big names like: Bank of America, BlackRock, CSX, Johnson & Johnsons.

Later in the week we will hear reports from: Abbott Labs, American Express, Blackstone Group, Danaher, E-Trade, Honeywell, IBM, Kinder Morgan, Morgan Stanley, PepsiCo, Phillip Morris, United Rentals, and Union Pacific.

Globally, the biggest number of the week is going to be China‚Äôs first-quarter GDP data which is scheduled for release Wednesday. I’m expecting an increase in volatility during this holiday shortened trade week.

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