Market Commentary

» Posted by on Mar 7, 2019 in Announcements, Shop Talk, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Stock bulls are trying to bounce back after three days of price pressure. The market seems a little jittery with no fresh news or headlines regarding Chinese trade moving further in the right direction.

President Trump tried to help ease the markets concerns yesterday by saying the trade talks with China were moving along well, but he also commented that either a “good deal” or “no deal” will be done between the world’s two largest economies.

With the trade now dissecting every detailed word, some believe this brought about a little uncertainty and fear. Rekindling thoughts that the U.S. could simply walk away from the table with no resolution or compromise. I personally don’t see that happening, but if the market wants to take the comment at face-value, I see where it could become a bit more nervous about the outcome.

Also perhaps adding a bit of pressure was news that the OECD cut its forecast for 2019 economic growth from 3.5% down to 3.3%. Slowing European growth seems to be one of their chief concerns.

Don’t forget, we are scheduled to hear from the ECB this morning regarding their latest policy decision, which most believe will follow the Fed and become more dovish in nature.

I’ve included a simple graphic from the OECD that explains their slowing growth perspective below. You can also view the entire slide-deck and presentation at OECD Economic Outlook HERE .

The U.S. economy is still seeing strong employment data. Yesterday’s latest ADP employment numbers suggested that we might have added more jobs than expected in February despite the difficult winter weather.

We should learn more tomorrow when the U.S. government releases their monthly employment numbers for February.

The economy has added roughly +1 million new jobs since October, capped off by a robust +300,000 jobs added in January.

Keep in mind, the last time the U.S. posted back-to-back gains of +300,000 new jobs was in 2006. I doubt it happens this time around with February being a short month and handcuffed by bad weather, but certainly worth noting and keeping an eye on.

The trade doesn’t appear to be looking for a lot of fresh or new headlines today, most eyes are focused on tomorrow employment numbers and ongoing trade talks with China. Stay tuned…

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