I am more cautious than usual of the regular releases by the powers that be for the next couple of months. Just one obvious example will be USDA data being released as they have a lot of processing to do.
I have always been skeptical of releases that say “seasonally adjusted” because to me that is simply license to bastardize the facts. Now we will hear about adjustments and revisions due to a month long shutdown of agencies that put together the numbers.
By the time we begin to get “real” numbers they will be talking about “seasonally adjusted.” I’m just saying be more guarded of the releases and “knee jerk” reactions.
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