Geopolitics

Skittish Reaction to Employment Report

»Posted by on Oct 2, 2015 in Blog, Commodities, Geopolitics | Comments Off on Skittish Reaction to Employment Report

Skittish Reaction to Employment Report

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Investors seem VERY skittish after this morning’s employment report. We are seeing a classic “risk off” and “flight to safety” reaction. Equities sold off and money flowing into treasuries and gold. See the report below.

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Economic Calendar: Thursday October 1 – Friday October 2

»Posted by on Sep 30, 2015 in Blog, Commodities, Geopolitics | Comments Off on Economic Calendar: Thursday October 1 – Friday October 2

Economic Calendar: Thursday October 1 – Friday October 2

Icon of Calendar

Thursday, October 1

Weekly Bill Settlement
Motor Vehicle Sales
6:30am CST Challenger Job Cut Report
7:30am CST Jobless Claims
Gallup US Payrolls
8:45am CST PMI Manufacturing Index
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:00am CST ISM MFG Index
Construction Spending
9:30am CST EIA Natural Gas Report
10:00am CST 3month Bill Announcement
6month Bill Announcement
3yr Note Announcement
10yr Note Announcement
30yr Bond Announcement
1:30pm CST FED- John Williams Speaks
3:30pm CST Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply

 

Friday, October 2

7:30am CST Employment Situation 
FED- Eric Rosengren Speaks
8:00am CST FED- Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
9:00am CST Factory Orders
10:00am CST Loretta Mester Speaks
11:00am CST FED- Stanley Fischer Speaks
Noon CST FED- James Bullard Speaks
Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

The post Economic Calendar: Thursday October 1 – Friday October 2 appeared first on Index Futures Group.

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Futures Power Rankings: Metals Hold at Top of Power Rankings for 2nd Straight Week

»Posted by on Sep 28, 2015 in Blog, Commodities, Futures Power Rankings, Geopolitics | Comments Off on Futures Power Rankings: Metals Hold at Top of Power Rankings for 2nd Straight Week

Futures Power Rankings: Metals Hold at Top of Power Rankings for 2nd Straight Week

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Trade Rec Update: 

Congratulations to those traders who entered on the first day last week as we hit 3 for 3 winners! With the moves this morning, though, it may be hard to catch all of today’s trades except Soybeans (which can be entered at the time of this writing). However, we have five trade suggestions. Crude and NQ will be high risk/high reward trades even if the market can come back to us. (Work those orders through Wednesday only.)

Trades are in Sugar, Soybeans, 10yr, NQ and Crude.

Good Trading!

Biggest Jump (+7): Live cattle jumped 7 spots after a wild week of limit moves. After breaking a new low on the 23rd and reaching limit down, prices reached the expanded limits on the 24th, but ended positive. After the wild move Thursday, cattle ended the week with another limit up day. These swings are likely to continue as a test of the seasonal bottom may be in play.

Biggest Drop (-8): Silver dropped 8 spots, sputtering after its recent run up over 15. Silver ranged between 14.75 and 15.25 last week, rebounding from Tuesday’s steep sell-off late in the week. Global markets continue to be pressuring the market, as well as an interest rate hike looming later this year.

For Trade Recommendations associated with the Power Rankings, click here or call your broker. If you’re not yet working with an Index representative, call 800-376-0810 to get started.

09282015

Legend:

[  ] – Associated Trade Recommendation

[  ] – Market was UP
[  ] – Market was DOWN
VDO – Last Week’s Price Volatility in dollar terms; or Volatility Dollar Opportunity
              (click here for more on the VDO)
Bias – This Week’s Bias
Rank – Based on VDO
Volatility – Last Week’s Price Volatility
PowerRankingBiasArrows

Previously on the Futures Power Rankings:

8/17 – USDA Report Generates Huge Moves

7/24 – Introducing Trade Recommendations

7/6 – Greece and USDA Headline Weekly Moves

6/29 – Grains Move Big Ahead of Acreage Report

6/22 – Metals Jump into Top Three with Dollar Volatility

6/17 – Low Volatility Creates Big Jumps in Rankings

 

The post Futures Power Rankings: Metals Hold at Top of Power Rankings for 2nd Straight Week appeared first on Index Futures Group.

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Economic Calendar: Thursday Sept 24 – Friday Sept 25

»Posted by on Sep 21, 2015 in Announcements, Blog, Commodities, Geopolitics | Comments Off on Economic Calendar: Thursday Sept 24 – Friday Sept 25

Economic Calendar: Thursday Sept 24 – Friday Sept 25

Icon of Calendar

 

Thursday, September 24

Weekly Bill Settlement
7:30am CST Durable Goods
  Jobless Claims
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:45am CST Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:00am CST New Home Sales
9:30am CST EIA Natural Gas Report
10:00am CST Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
3 & 6 month Bill announcement
Noon CST 7 yr Note Auction
3:30pm CST Money Supply
4:00pm CST FED- Janet Yellen Speaks

 

Friday, September 25

7:30am CST GDP
Corporate Profits
8:15am CST FED- James Bullard Speaks
8:45am CST PMI Services Flash
9:00am CST Consumer Sentiment
Noon CST Baker-Hughes Rig Count
12:25pm CST FED- Esther George Speaks

 

 

 

 

 

The post Economic Calendar: Thursday Sept 24 – Friday Sept 25 appeared first on Index Futures Group.

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Metals Surge to Take Two of Top Three

»Posted by on Sep 21, 2015 in Blog, Commodities, Futures Power Rankings, Geopolitics | Comments Off on Metals Surge to Take Two of Top Three

Metals Surge to Take Two of Top Three

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Trade Rec Update: Last week we had only one trade. However, it was a winner for those that participated.

This week we have five trade recommendations, all with good risk reward scenarios.  Even though they are both lower risk trades, the 10year ZNV and the Soybeans ZSV options have only until Friday. Please allow for a quick exit even if it doesn’t hit our levels. I like this handful of trades for the week. Please call if you have any questions.

Good Trading!

Biggest Jump (+6): Hogs and natural gas took the biggest leaps of the week, moving out of the 14 and 15 spots. Natural gas, after looking like it was going to break through this consolidation with an upside move early in the week, ended up making contract lows on Thursday. Lean hogs jumped to its highest weekly close in over 3 months.

Biggest Drop (-6): Copper dropped 6 spots, retracing a bit after its big week from the 7th-11th. The market did reach 2.50, but ended up closing under 2.40. Weak demand and economic turmoil in China has been keeping the market down.

For Trade Recommendations associated with the Power Rankings, click here or call your broker. If you’re not yet working with an Index representative, call 800-376-0810 to get started.

09212015

Legend:

[  ] – Associated Trade Recommendation

[  ] – Market was UP
[  ] – Market was DOWN
VDO – Last Week’s Price Volatility in dollar terms; or Volatility Dollar Opportunity
              (click here for more on the VDO)
Bias – This Week’s Bias
Rank – Based on VDO
Volatility – Last Week’s Price Volatility
PowerRankingBiasArrows

Previously on the Futures Power Rankings:

8/17 – USDA Report Generates Huge Moves

7/24 – Introducing Trade Recommendations

7/6 – Greece and USDA Headline Weekly Moves

6/29 – Grains Move Big Ahead of Acreage Report

6/22 – Metals Jump into Top Three with Dollar Volatility

6/17 – Low Volatility Creates Big Jumps in Rankings

 

The post Metals Surge to Take Two of Top Three appeared first on Index Futures Group.

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3,2,1 … Time for Fed Blastoff!

»Posted by on Sep 16, 2015 in Announcements, Blog, Bonds, CNBC, Commodities, Geopolitics, Options, Stocks | Comments Off on 3,2,1 … Time for Fed Blastoff!

3,2,1 … Time for Fed Blastoff!

space shuttle blast off

space shuttle blast offI remember watching the Apollo space flights as a child, whether it be at home on our small black-and-white television or the big-25 inch TV at school, and the most exciting part was the countdown to liftoff. It was exciting and gave us all a reason to be proud of being Americans (My old teacher would make us recite the pledge of allegiance every time we saw a space flight).

But soon afterwards, it was over. The spacecraft was on its way to orbit the moon or land and drive a car on the surface, but it was over nonetheless. The feeling is essentially the same as we wait for theFederal Reserve to make the move and lift off into “normalcy.” Janet Yellen and company should begin liftoff but let the world know that it’s over for now.

Let’s be clear about a few market fundamentals. We all understand that the current interest-rate environment is not normal and want the market forces to drive the market to a value area. But the market we have is one in which the central bank acted as the vanguard of the financial system and subsequently ended up supporting the entire system. Check me if I’m wrong, but one of the reasons for the creation of the Fed in the first place was to create some semblance of stability at times when the market called for it. Was there ever a better time for real, hard-core intervention than in 2008? (Maybe in 1929, but the Fed was still in it’s infancy with no real power.)

The real difference of opinion among traders and managers falls in the myth that this is a Fed-driven rally caused by cheap money. I would argue that, if that were true, we would see valuations well over the current 15 times S&P 500 earnings. Many of us remember a time when the market traded at 20 to 25 times forward earnings and we had Soviet missiles aimed at our borders! This is a fairly priced stock market — and one might even argue underpriced in the current interest-rate environment.

The second fundamental that we should all agree upon is that quantitative easing did not cause a debasement of the U.S. dollar and inflationary pressure is nonexistent. This was the result of a twin miracle which happened simultaneously. First, the dollar started to rally against other major currencies as we started to see improvement in our economy while others were late to the game (Trichet!!) Second, the technological advancement here at home in energy.

The U.S. has cemented its place as a leader, not only in military, economic and technological power, but in something the world sees as even more important — energy power. This has created a stable inflationary picture — something the Fed has worked toward successfully.

Employment and housing have reached pre-crisis levels, which show growth in the economy. And underlying conditions of opportunity have improved. The Fed has told us they are data-dependent and the data have been good. The employment number is the best single barometer of the health of the economy. With job creation at levels that can be called fairly normal and housing working through its own issues, the time has come to start to take interest rates back to where they should be … slowly.

The reasons behind those who argue against a rate hike are varied, from the turmoil in the Chinese markets to the migrants in Europe to the strength of the dollar. One fact remains: There will never be a perfect time to start a Fed liftoff. The reality is that the U.S. economy is a global leader. If we do well, the rest of the world usually does well, and it’s one of the ancillary effects of exporting U.S.-based free-market capitalism all around the world.

Now is the time to come off of crisis mode and take the long, long road to normal interest rates and send a message load a clear to the rest of the economic world that the US is healthy and ready to lead. Will it be messy? Absolutely. But the time is right and it’s necessary for the health of the economy. Dr. Yellen, three, two, one … and we have liftoff?

~ Jack Bouroudjian, CEO

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