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As Night Falls

»Posted by on Oct 3, 2018 in Announcements, Shop Talk | 0 comments

Night Market trade in the Indices has some follow through at this point (11:30 PM EDT) E-Mini S&P up 6.00 with decent volume exceeding 35,000. The Dow is up 55 and the NASDAQ is up 18.00. The Dollar slightly lower with Crude virtually unchanged. MBA Mortgage Applications come out at 7:00 AM ET with ADP Employment report following at 8:15. PMI is released at 9:45 and ISM Non-Manufacturing index comes out at 10:00. As usual the EIA Petroleum report will be at 10:30. Keep in mind that Crude hit its highest level Tuesday since Nov. 2014.

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Continuing From Monday

»Posted by on Oct 2, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

Export Inspections for wheat Monday saw shipments for the week drop nearly 14% from the previous week and about half what it was a year ago. Note from July 1 to Sept 30, exports to the European Union are down nearly 32% from last year. Near by Dec futures are up about 2 cents at 12:00 EDT. Corn exports are roughly 57.5 % over this time last year. Dec Corn gains are 1 ½ at noon. Soybean futures continue their gains of Monday. Export Inspections showed a decrease of nearly 18% from the week prior and about 34% lower than last year. Nov Beans up 3 ½ Indices continue their Rally with the Dow on pace for yet another record high with the 10 yr yield at 3.054%.

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What? Another Report?

»Posted by on Oct 2, 2018 in Announcements, Shop Talk | 0 comments

8:00 AM EDT: U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales. Unit sales of motor vehicles include domestic sales and foreign sales, otherwise referred to as imports. Domestics are sales of autos produced in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Given the most recent turn of events with trade agreements this report is bound to be watched much more closely.  Consensus 16.9M, the Consensus Range is 16.5M to 17.1M 8:55 AM EDT: Redbook This report offers early indications on ex-auto ex-gas retail sales. Y/Y store sales came in previously at 5.8% Clearly most media coverage will not look at this as long as there is ridiculous stuff to sensationalize.

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»Posted by on Oct 1, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

Pre-market trade Sunday showed some modest gains as the first day of the last quarter of the year opens. Then the trade talks come back into play. Most agricultural markets gained support as news was well received regarding the talks between U.S, Canada, and Mexico finally coming to a deal was announced and all major indices followed suit. As we have seen before when the uncertainty gets relieved the markets typically react favorably. However caution is advised as the deal has to pass congress and many details still have not been conveyed. I’m sure as the structure is analyzed there will be some give and take to many markets. Will it be “buy the deal, sell the detail?” We’ll see.

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Not About Trade Talks

»Posted by on Sep 29, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

Grain futures ended the week all lower but don’t think this is trade talk related. The Grain Stocks Report Friday was really pretty bearish. Dec CBOT Wheat ended down 4 cents and 2.44% lower on the week. All wheat stocks were 112 mbu greater than this time last year. Corn stocks came in 2.14 bbu while the average estimate was 2.01 bbu. This is nearly 7% greater than the WASDE September Projection. Nov Beans came off 9 ½ cents. Stocks totaled 438 mbu which is 136 mbu greater than last year.

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Remember… Supply, Demand, Price Discovery

»Posted by on Sep 5, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

Corn Inspections for 2018 have increased by 785,280 MT compared to this time last year. While Soybeans declined by 1,569,121 MT. Brazil has about finished shipments for the year and I don’t see, as I’ve indicated before, that global demand is dropping off. Tariffs or not U.S. grain and oil seed will be bought and sold. Users and producers, as has been he case throughout history, will trade the market they have, not necessarily the market they want.

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