Shop Talk

Let’s Talk Trading with Fractals!

Where’s The Beef?

»Posted by on Oct 20, 2018 in Shop Talk, Uncategorized | 0 comments

No real action in Cattle Futures or the Cash Market Friday, as traders awaited the Cattle on Feed report. It was estimated that on feed would be an increase of 6.3% when actually it came in with only up 5%. Placements were expected to grow .3% when they were 5% lower. Marketed was 4% lower near the 3.5% expected. This is widely viewed as a bullish report and many are expecting a bit of a bid to come in Monday. If you have to be a buyer be a cautious one. When I had the privilege to trade these reports in the open out cry session we called them “Cattle on FADE” around the trading floor. Yet again it could trigger a seasonal rally going into Nov. if you look to a longer term trade.

read more

What was the fear last week?

»Posted by on Oct 16, 2018 in Announcements, Shop Talk, Uncategorized | 0 comments

JOLTS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The expected job openings in August by many was 6.905M and again the forecasters were greatly surprised by a record 7.136M with an upward revision for July to 7.077M from 6.939M Industrial Production rose 0.3 percent in September and manufacturing production was up 0.2 percent. The Housing Market Index was expected at 67 with a range of 65 to 67. The actual reported was 68 for a 1 point gain. That was the first rise since July indicating some optimism is actually out there. All this with strong Q3 earnings releases has pushed indices considerably higher. I guess last weeks fear over climbing yields has dissipated for the moment.

read more

Wow! How Different Is It?

»Posted by on Oct 16, 2018 in Announcements, Shop Talk, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Things look much different when the media doesn’t hype trade talks! Wheat in Chicago adds to Fridays gains by 7 ¾ cents today. Weekly export inspections showed nearly a 38 ½% increase over the same time period last year. Nearby Dec. corn also posted a gain of 4 1/2 cents over Fridays Close. While export inspections for the week of 10/11 were estimated roughly 28% lower than the previous week they still are nearly triple the same time frame of last year. Soybeans posted the strongest gains on the day of 24 cents in the Nov. Export inspections more than doubled the previous week yet were more than 35% off the same week last year. Holy Cow! Dec. Cattle up $1.80 and feeders following suit? All in all Ags look great!

read more

Gee What a Surprise… NOT!

»Posted by on Oct 11, 2018 in Announcements, Shop Talk, Uncategorized | 0 comments

PPI: The Producer Price Index is a compilation of indexes that measure the change over time of prices by domestic producers of goods and services. As was expected throughout the entire spectrum of the analysis PPI was reported with an increase of 0.2%. This had no material affect on the early market participants as traders were still absorbed by the yields Treasuries are currently posting. Mostly because the talking heads sensationalize what the empty suits are spouting off about. (My question is… What is the big surprise?) Have not economists foreseen and even called for this more than a year ago? Now that it has come to fruition they feel the need to sell off the market that has most recently made all time highs. Maybe the truth of the matter is that the...

read more

Look What Happened

»Posted by on Oct 9, 2018 in Announcements, Shop Talk | 0 comments

Redbook: A weekly measure of comparable store sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. The report offers early indications on ex-auto ex-gas retail sales. Released 10/9/18 at 8:55 AM EDT.  Previous Store Sales Y/Y change 5.7% Actual 6.5 % Although a very volatile reading the trend has been upward all year. Jan 17 it was posted at 2.6%, June 19 at 4.7%, and now 6.5%. It remains to be seen if a rising interest rate environment will have a material negative impact as many believe. All the talk has been about these recent downward moves in the major indices due to the climb in yields and the Fed Fund Futures point to an 80% chance the Fed will act again in December. Should the Fed slow down? Or maybe concentrate more on their balance sheet.

read more

Let’s Review

»Posted by on Oct 7, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

Near by Dec Wheat in Chicago settled Friday 3 cents higher. August exports totaled 75.6 mbu up more than 18% from last month. Commitment of traders showed specs adding to their short position by nearly 11,000 contracts. Corn shipments fell by more than 13% from July but nearly 67% greater than August 2017. Dec Corn gained 3.37% on the week. Wet conditions across the Corn Belt will likely slow harvest activity. Soybean futures continue their gains closing 8 to 9 ¾ cents higher. Exports in August were the second largest recorded at 123.7 mbu. Nov Beans up 2.78% on the week The 10 yr yield climbed to exceed 3.22%. This was one thing attributed to the downward move in indices. Personally I think that a good portion was simply profit taking and trimming positions...

read more