Shop Talk

Let’s Talk Trading with Fractals!

Remember… Supply, Demand, Price Discovery

»Posted by on Sep 5, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

Corn Inspections for 2018 have increased by 785,280 MT compared to this time last year. While Soybeans declined by 1,569,121 MT. Brazil has about finished shipments for the year and I don’t see, as I’ve indicated before, that global demand is dropping off. Tariffs or not U.S. grain and oil seed will be bought and sold. Users and producers, as has been he case throughout history, will trade the market they have, not necessarily the market they want.

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YEAH! Long Weekend at Month End!

»Posted by on Aug 31, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

As is typical for pre-holiday markets, weekend, month end, as well as the uncertainty hanging on with trade talks, things seem pretty quiet for the most part. Consumer Sentiment at 96.2 vs. 95.4 really didn’t have much impact. It is likely as the session heads towards the close many will be taking on the safety trade. I hope you are taking some dough off the table and enjoy the weekend. The worst thing I think that could happen is if the Trump and Freeland agree to “move forward” by talking about it further at another time. This would not be good thing. In the meantime BEST TO ALL!

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Growth and Caution

»Posted by on Aug 29, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

I’m pretty confident that most investors have already picked up on the upward revision of Q2 GDP to 4.2 from 4.1. With that there seems to be, at this point, no material signs of inflation. That I think reinforces a Fed Funds hike in September but there is also something in the wind worth watching… and that’s the Yield Curve. Some pretty smart guys, like Rick Santelli for one, are pointing out that an inverted curve (3’s over 10’s particularly) could dampen economic growth. I have commented many times as QE was coming to an end that the Fed should be cautious of the pace they hike and their balance sheet while they raise them. It seems a good time to let the rate hikes to this point work there way through the economy and keep them naturally...

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The Worlds Strongest Supporter… The U.S. Consumer

»Posted by on Aug 28, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

The Consumer Confidence Numbers released today of 133.4 vs. 126.5 were the best since 1980 (or to put it another way since the Reagan Tax Cut days.) It also reinforces the comments buy the likes of Brian Cornell, CEO of Target, and Hubert Joly, CEO of Best Buy. The disappointing numbers in New and Existing home sales last week along with the strong consumer will likely make Craig Menear, CEO of Home Depot, pretty happy as people may look to remodel rather than buy. Many consider the Consumer Confidence Numbers a “lagging indicator” but it seems it’s been looking very strong for about a year and a half now and I really haven’t seen much indicating that will not continue at this point.

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As the News Breaks

»Posted by on Aug 27, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

When good news comes out of trade talks equities resume their run and many, it seems, pulled out of the treasuries as that occurred. The agreement with Mexico has been well received but is being ignored by the Grain markets. At this time there are great moves to the upside in Meats. This was helped by the USDA Cattle on feed report. Money manager’s turned modestly bullish Hogs according to the commitment of trader’s filings. There are hopes that talks with Canada follow the same lines.

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Take Note

»Posted by on Aug 21, 2018 in Shop Talk | 0 comments

It, to me, is a bit surprising that the financials are shrugging off some bullish news. I am confident that a rate hike is going to occur in the Sep. FOMC meeting and it seems likely another in Dec. despite President Trump’s criticisms, yet I thought that was already built into the market. I thought the Treasuries would have caught a bit of a bid as a flight to safety stemming from the uncertainty of what the outcome these trade talks could be. I still kind of like the Buy Side for the short term.

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