Announcements

Economic Calendar: Thursday Sept 24 – Friday Sept 25

»Posted by on Sep 21, 2015 in Announcements, Blog, Commodities, Geopolitics | Comments Off on Economic Calendar: Thursday Sept 24 – Friday Sept 25

Economic Calendar: Thursday Sept 24 – Friday Sept 25

Icon of Calendar

 

Thursday, September 24

Weekly Bill Settlement
7:30am CST Durable Goods
  Jobless Claims
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:45am CST Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:00am CST New Home Sales
9:30am CST EIA Natural Gas Report
10:00am CST Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
3 & 6 month Bill announcement
Noon CST 7 yr Note Auction
3:30pm CST Money Supply
4:00pm CST FED- Janet Yellen Speaks

 

Friday, September 25

7:30am CST GDP
Corporate Profits
8:15am CST FED- James Bullard Speaks
8:45am CST PMI Services Flash
9:00am CST Consumer Sentiment
Noon CST Baker-Hughes Rig Count
12:25pm CST FED- Esther George Speaks

 

 

 

 

 

The post Economic Calendar: Thursday Sept 24 – Friday Sept 25 appeared first on Index Futures Group.

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3,2,1 … Time for Fed Blastoff!

»Posted by on Sep 16, 2015 in Announcements, Blog, Bonds, CNBC, Commodities, Geopolitics, Options, Stocks | Comments Off on 3,2,1 … Time for Fed Blastoff!

3,2,1 … Time for Fed Blastoff!

space shuttle blast off

space shuttle blast offI remember watching the Apollo space flights as a child, whether it be at home on our small black-and-white television or the big-25 inch TV at school, and the most exciting part was the countdown to liftoff. It was exciting and gave us all a reason to be proud of being Americans (My old teacher would make us recite the pledge of allegiance every time we saw a space flight).

But soon afterwards, it was over. The spacecraft was on its way to orbit the moon or land and drive a car on the surface, but it was over nonetheless. The feeling is essentially the same as we wait for theFederal Reserve to make the move and lift off into “normalcy.” Janet Yellen and company should begin liftoff but let the world know that it’s over for now.

Let’s be clear about a few market fundamentals. We all understand that the current interest-rate environment is not normal and want the market forces to drive the market to a value area. But the market we have is one in which the central bank acted as the vanguard of the financial system and subsequently ended up supporting the entire system. Check me if I’m wrong, but one of the reasons for the creation of the Fed in the first place was to create some semblance of stability at times when the market called for it. Was there ever a better time for real, hard-core intervention than in 2008? (Maybe in 1929, but the Fed was still in it’s infancy with no real power.)

The real difference of opinion among traders and managers falls in the myth that this is a Fed-driven rally caused by cheap money. I would argue that, if that were true, we would see valuations well over the current 15 times S&P 500 earnings. Many of us remember a time when the market traded at 20 to 25 times forward earnings and we had Soviet missiles aimed at our borders! This is a fairly priced stock market — and one might even argue underpriced in the current interest-rate environment.

The second fundamental that we should all agree upon is that quantitative easing did not cause a debasement of the U.S. dollar and inflationary pressure is nonexistent. This was the result of a twin miracle which happened simultaneously. First, the dollar started to rally against other major currencies as we started to see improvement in our economy while others were late to the game (Trichet!!) Second, the technological advancement here at home in energy.

The U.S. has cemented its place as a leader, not only in military, economic and technological power, but in something the world sees as even more important — energy power. This has created a stable inflationary picture — something the Fed has worked toward successfully.

Employment and housing have reached pre-crisis levels, which show growth in the economy. And underlying conditions of opportunity have improved. The Fed has told us they are data-dependent and the data have been good. The employment number is the best single barometer of the health of the economy. With job creation at levels that can be called fairly normal and housing working through its own issues, the time has come to start to take interest rates back to where they should be … slowly.

The reasons behind those who argue against a rate hike are varied, from the turmoil in the Chinese markets to the migrants in Europe to the strength of the dollar. One fact remains: There will never be a perfect time to start a Fed liftoff. The reality is that the U.S. economy is a global leader. If we do well, the rest of the world usually does well, and it’s one of the ancillary effects of exporting U.S.-based free-market capitalism all around the world.

Now is the time to come off of crisis mode and take the long, long road to normal interest rates and send a message load a clear to the rest of the economic world that the US is healthy and ready to lead. Will it be messy? Absolutely. But the time is right and it’s necessary for the health of the economy. Dr. Yellen, three, two, one … and we have liftoff?

~ Jack Bouroudjian, CEO

The post 3,2,1 … Time for Fed Blastoff! appeared first on Index Futures Group.

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Interview with Tomas Nesnidal, developer of the Morpheus-1 TF Trading System

»Posted by on Sep 10, 2015 in Announcements, Blog, Commodities | Comments Off on Interview with Tomas Nesnidal, developer of the Morpheus-1 TF Trading System

Interview with Tomas Nesnidal, developer of the Morpheus-1 TF Trading System

Morpheus Featured system

Morpheus performanceRecently we sat down with Tomas Nesnidal, developer of the Morpheus-1 TF Trading System.

Mr. Nesnidal uses high-end technology and a rigid development protocol to incorporate the innovative algorithms that are unique to his trading systems.

Tomas, tell us about your background. What led you to become a system developer?

Tomas Nesnidal: First of all, thank you very much for the chance to present myself and my trading systems to your clients and readers. It is an honor for me to do this interview.

Although my original background is in the film and TV industry, I have been trading fulltime for about 12 years already. I used to do discretionary trading for many years, but since 2010 all my trading is 100% automated.

My story is a quite simple one. My original background is artistic – for many years I worked as a film and TV director. However, the film industry in the Czech Republic (Central Europe), where I am originally from, is really a tough one. As a film and TV director I experienced a lot of financial struggle.

One day I just realized I didn’t want to live like that anymore. My wife and I always dreamed about traveling extensively and living by the sea. So I decided to become a trader and make all of this happen.

Fortunately for me, I soon realized that I really love trading and system development. It requires a lot of creativity, which is a strong point for me. I just love thinking up new ideas, developing out-of-the box solutions, etc. This approach really helps me to stay ahead of the game.

What should a trader know about the Morpheus-1 ATS intraday system?

Tomas Nesnidal: Morpheus-1 ATS has been trading live since 2011, with great results and low drawdown. The system trades with a reasonably small stop-loss (300-600 USD, depending on the quality of the entry signal), is suitable for a small account (from 6.000 USD), and has made a +104.57% return by now as of Aug 1, 2015, after slip, fees, and commission. I consider it to be a very robust and reliable system.

Is Morpheus-1 ATS re-optimized, and if so, is it scheduled or event driven?

Tomas Nesnidal: In general, re-optimization is an important part of all of my trading systems. Most of them are re-optimized on a regular basis. However, Morpheus-1 ATS is one of a few of my systems with an event driven re-optimization.

Do you offer some more systems for lease with Striker, and where can our clients get more information about that?

Tomas Nesnidal: Yes, right now I offer two other systems. T-Gainer ATS is another system with a positive live trading history since 2013. G-REX ATS is a system with a reasonable stop-loss (500 USD) and great potential, as it combines two very strong systems into one. All my systems passed a proprietary, very strict development protocol and very demanding robustness testing. Detailed information about all of my systems can be requested here and of course, you can contact your broker anytime to ask him for the latest performance reports, portfolio suggestions, or general info.

Do you have anything you can share with us in the “What’s New” section?

Tomas Nesnidal: For me, trading and trading development is a never ending process of improvement. I just love working on new concepts, and I keep myself highly focused so that I am constantly learning something new about markets. After all, in trading and system development there is always something new to learn – almost every day!

Right now I am working on furthering the automation of my development process in order to be able to do my Design & Prototype and Robustness Testing processes more quickly. I also work on several new trading concepts and recently finished a lot of research and testing on Market Internals. I am absolutely sure that more great trading systems are just down the road! 

This interview is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation of any kind. Trade only with risk capital. The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether trading systems are a suitable investment.

Disclaimer and Definitions

***Definitions

Maximum Draw Down The biggest deciline of equity over a specific period of time. Peak to valley is the difference between a high point of equity and the next lowest point of equity over a number of trades on the monthly basis.
Purpose: This indicator is used to help analyze the risk of an account.
How to use: The Maximum Draw Down is a tool for the portfolio selection process. It is used as a risk measure and allows individuals to get an indication about how an account might react to a trend of falling prices.

Sharpe Ratio Measures the return earned in excess of the risk-free rate on a portfolio to the portfolio’s total risk. The prior month’s 90 Day T-Bill Rate is used as risk-free rate.

Purpose: Like other risk-adjusted ratios, the Sharpe Ratio compares the returns to a specific measure of risk. Here, the standard deviation is used. The Sharpe Ratio helps evaluate the potential returns in light of the underlying risk.
How to use: The Sharpe Ratio is used to evaluate the quality rather than the quantity of the returns of a security or a portfolio of securities. The higher the value of the indicator, the better the quality of the returns on a risk/reward basis.

Sterling Ratio A risk-adjusted ratio given by dividing the returns on a security by the Maximum Draw Down (the biggest consecutive loss) for the same period.

Purpose: Like other risk-adjusted ratios, the Sterling Ratio compares the returns to a specific measure of risk. Here, the Maximum Draw Down is used. The Sterling Ratio helps evaluate the potential returns on a security in light of the underlying risk.
How to use: The Sterling Ratio is used to evaluate the quality rather than the quantity of the returns on a security or a portfolio of securities. The higher the value of the indicator, the better the quality of the returns on a risk/reward basis.

System Performance Disclosure:

System Description
“System Description” is based upon information obtained from specific system marketing documents, system developers and/or system vendors themselves. While the information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy.Actual Monthly Performance
The table and charts represent the monthly/quarterly/annual summation of actual trades based on system-specified contract(s) executed through Striker Securities, Inc. using the referenced trading system or system vendor for the stated time period. Commissions and monthly vendor fees are deducted from the tabulation. This table is presented for information purposes only and is not a solicitation for the referenced system or vendor. Striker Securities, Inc. as a matter of policy has no financial relationship with the referenced system or vendor or any other trading system or vendor. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. The results indicated here may or may not be typical of the performance of this system and, ALTHOUGH WE BELIEVE THIS INFORMATION TO BE ACCURATE, INDEX FUTURES GROUP MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE. This is not the only trading system that Striker Securities, Inc. executes for its clients. Potential traders should carefully investigate, evaluate and compare trading systems before investing capital. Some or all trading systems may involve an inappropriate level of risk for potential traders. It is the nature of commodity trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. In opening an account with Index Futures Group, Customer acknowledges and agrees that he/she will rely solely upon the information that Index Futures Group provides to you. Thus, all prior third-party materials provided are superseded by the information and disclosures provided by Index Futures Group.Important Information About this Trading System Analysis
Statistics, tables, charts and other information on trading system monthly performance are based on actual trading unless otherwise specified. Actual dollar and percentage gains/losses experienced by investors would depend on many factors not accounted for in these statistics, including, but not limited to, starting account balances, market behavior, developer fees, incidence of split fills and other variations in order execution, and the duration and extent of individual investor participation in the specified system. Other expenses such as exchange fees, nfa fees, transaction fees, software or system costs are not accounted for herein, and will affect investors net results in actual trading. While the information and statistics given are believed to be complete and accurate we cannot guarantee their completeness or accuracy. Performance information is not the performance of a single account, but a compilation of several accounts over time, and is based on the physical trading ticket. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL/ INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. These results are not indicative of, and have no bearing on, any individual results that may be attained by the trading system in the future.

This trading system, like any other, may involve an inappropriate level of risk for prospective investors. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. Prior to purchasing or leasing a trading system from this or any other system vendor or investing in a trading system with a registered commodity trading representative, investors need to carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for them in light of their own specific financial condition. In some cases, futures accounts are subject to substantial charges for commission, management, incentive or advisory fees. It may be necessary for accounts subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets. In addition, one should carefully study the accompanying prospectus, account forms, disclosure documents and/or risk disclosure statements required by the CFTC or NFA, which are provided directly by the system vendor and/or CTA’s.

The information contained in this report is provided with the objective of “standardizing” trading systems performance measurements, and it is intended for educational /informational purposes only. All information is offered with the understanding that an investor considering purchasing or leasing a system must carry out his/her own research and due diligence in deciding whether to purchase or lease any trading system noted within or without this report. This report does not constitute a solicitation to purchase or invest in any trading system which may be mentioned herein. INDEX FUTURES GROUP AND STRIKER SECURITIES,INC. MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY OTHER TRADING SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE TO ANY TRADING SYSTEM.

Recently we sat down with Don Wolf, developer of the Alpha Blend trading system. Alpha Blend March 08 2015

Alpha Blend is a short term trend following system using volatility and applied to a diversified group of instruments. The program is a day trading system and profits during both up and down markets. To control risk, stops are used and no trades are allowed to be held overnight. The program tries to allow profits to run intraday, while adjusting trade risk continually. Alpha Blend uses a daily portfolio filter to select only certain trades across instruments.

Tell us about yourself.

Don Wolf: I have spent the last 30 years successfully trading and developing systems. I started trading Silver and Gold while in school and was so successful I decided to bypass University. I concentrated on creating automated trading systems using a math and algorithmic base. I soon partnered with family to profitably trade several systems before moving out on my own. It is only recently that I have decided to offer systems for others participation. Trading is my life’s work and I take great pride in my systems.

Lately, we have interviewed a lot of Europeans, and it is nice to chat with an American where did you grow up how did you develop an interest in futures trading?

Don Wolf: I grew up in the New York City suburbs, my Father and his close friend in the Banking Industry mentored my early interest in trading and the mathematical logic behind it. It was through their encouragement I began system trading using short term cycles in Gold and Silver on the COMEX. I was so encouraged and enthused by that first trading experience that I decided to make a career of system trading.

Alpha Blend trades a wide range of commodities, is the system designed to take advantage of more volatility once the Fed reverses policy?

Don Wolf: Yes. Alpha Blend is a short term trend following system using volatility and because it is applied to a diversified group of instruments, it will take advantage of Fed policy changes as well as a wide range of market moving events across many sectors.Because Alpha Blend takes both long and short trades with a fluctuating bias and uses a dynamic portfolio selector, the system by design is adept at capturing market moving events.

Is your system a bull or bear trending system does it have a bias?

Don Wolf: The system is designed to capture both short-term bull and bear trends. The bias changes per instrument based on the short-term trend and adjusts accordingly. In the long run the bias will smooth out.

Please explain your use of money management and stops as we notice losses tend to be small and controlled.

Don Wolf: Keeping the losses small as possible is the goal. To control risk, stops are always used and a trailing stop near breakeven is also sometimes employed. When the trade survives the stop, it’s always exited on the close and never held overnight. Alpha Blend also uses a sophisticated portfolio selector each day to maximize trade selection. The goal is to be in the right trade at the right time.

While Alpha Blend is listed as a “swing” system it seems to be more of a day system nearly flat every day. Is it really at heart a “day trading system”?

Don Wolf: Yes it’s a day trading system with a very short term swing element to it, with the idea of trying to capture just a portion of a trend.

What do the back tested draw downs tell?

Don Wolf: I feel that you can reduce draw downs and the severity of them by diversifying across multiple sectors/instruments as well as the ability to go long or short. This is part of the how and why Alpha Blend is structured. The use of vigorous stops and a robust portfolio selection model help to limit draw downs as well. By exiting as a daytrade, risk is further reduced.

Tell us about Absolute Alpha is this a sister system to Alpha Blend or completely different in nature and design?

Don Wolf: Actually the nature of the systems is very similar, but the time frames of variables used and trade entries/exits differ. Absolute Alpha differs mainly by trying to capture a longer term trend by taking the trade overnight and exiting during the next session. On the other hand, Alpha Blend is a day trading system that exits the same day. Though the systems are similar, they are not necessarily correlated so they can counterbalance as well as complement each other.

Will you be starting any new systems this year?

Don Wolf: In my thirty years of trading, I have a portfolio of highly successful systems that I will be testing, adapting and modifying in the coming year. I will be releasing a new counter-trend system in the coming weeks. I also plan to release several new swing, trend, and reversal systems, which will compliment my current system offerings.

This interview is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation of any kind. Trade only with risk capital. The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether trading systems are a suitable investment.

Disclaimer and Definitions

***Definitions

Maximum Draw Down The biggest deciline of equity over a specific period of time. Peak to valley is the difference between a high point of equity and the next lowest point of equity over a number of trades on the monthly basis.
Purpose: This indicator is used to help analyze the risk of an account.
How to use: The Maximum Draw Down is a tool for the portfolio selection process. It is used as a risk measure and allows individuals to get an indication about how an account might react to a trend of falling prices.

Sharpe Ratio Measures the return earned in excess of the risk-free rate on a portfolio to the portfolio’s total risk. The prior month’s 90 Day T-Bill Rate is used as risk-free rate.

Purpose: Like other risk-adjusted ratios, the Sharpe Ratio compares the returns to a specific measure of risk. Here, the standard deviation is used. The Sharpe Ratio helps evaluate the potential returns in light of the underlying risk.
How to use: The Sharpe Ratio is used to evaluate the quality rather than the quantity of the returns of a security or a portfolio of securities. The higher the value of the indicator, the better the quality of the returns on a risk/reward basis.

Sterling Ratio A risk-adjusted ratio given by dividing the returns on a security by the Maximum Draw Down (the biggest consecutive loss) for the same period.

Purpose: Like other risk-adjusted ratios, the Sterling Ratio compares the returns to a specific measure of risk. Here, the Maximum Draw Down is used. The Sterling Ratio helps evaluate the potential returns on a security in light of the underlying risk.
How to use: The Sterling Ratio is used to evaluate the quality rather than the quantity of the returns on a security or a portfolio of securities. The higher the value of the indicator, the better the quality of the returns on a risk/reward basis.

System Performance Disclosure:

System Description
“System Description” is based upon information obtained from specific system marketing documents, system developers and/or system vendors themselves. While the information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy.Actual Monthly Performance
The table and charts represent the monthly/quarterly/annual summation of actual trades based on system-specified contract(s) executed through Striker Securities, Inc. using the referenced trading system or system vendor for the stated time period. Commissions and monthly vendor fees are deducted from the tabulation. This table is presented for information purposes only and is not a solicitation for the referenced system or vendor. Striker Securities, Inc. as a matter of policy has no financial relationship with the referenced system or vendor or any other trading system or vendor. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. The results indicated here may or may not be typical of the performance of this system and, ALTHOUGH WE BELIEVE THIS INFORMATION TO BE ACCURATE, INDEX FUTURES GROUP MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE. This is not the only trading system that Striker Securities, Inc. executes for its clients. Potential traders should carefully investigate, evaluate and compare trading systems before investing capital. Some or all trading systems may involve an inappropriate level of risk for potential traders. It is the nature of commodity trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. In opening an account with Index Futures Group, Customer acknowledges and agrees that he/she will rely solely upon the information that Index Futures Group provides to you. Thus, all prior third-party materials provided are superseded by the information and disclosures provided by Index Futures Group.Important Information About this Trading System Analysis
Statistics, tables, charts and other information on trading system monthly performance are based on actual trading unless otherwise specified. Actual dollar and percentage gains/losses experienced by investors would depend on many factors not accounted for in these statistics, including, but not limited to, starting account balances, market behavior, developer fees, incidence of split fills and other variations in order execution, and the duration and extent of individual investor participation in the specified system. Other expenses such as exchange fees, nfa fees, transaction fees, software or system costs are not accounted for herein, and will affect investors net results in actual trading. While the information and statistics given are believed to be complete and accurate we cannot guarantee their completeness or accuracy. Performance information is not the performance of a single account, but a compilation of several accounts over time, and is based on the physical trading ticket. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL/ INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. These results are not indicative of, and have no bearing on, any individual results that may be attained by the trading system in the future.This trading system, like any other, may involve an inappropriate level of risk for prospective investors. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. Prior to purchasing or leasing a trading system from this or any other system vendor or investing in a trading system with a registered commodity trading representative, investors need to carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for them in light of their own specific financial condition. In some cases, futures accounts are subject to substantial charges for commission, management, incentive or advisory fees. It may be necessary for accounts subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets. In addition, one should carefully study the accompanying prospectus, account forms, disclosure documents and/or risk disclosure statements required by the CFTC or NFA, which are provided directly by the system vendor and/or CTA’s.The information contained in this report is provided with the objective of “standardizing” trading systems performance measurements, and it is intended for educational /informational purposes only. All information is offered with the understanding that an investor considering purchasing or leasing a system must carry out his/her own research and due diligence in deciding whether to purchase or lease any trading system noted within or without this report. This report does not constitute a solicitation to purchase or invest in any trading system which may be mentioned herein. INDEX FUTURES GROUP AND STRIKER SECURITIES,INC. MAKES NO ENDORSEMENT OF THIS OR ANY OTHER TRADING SYSTEM NOR WARRANTS ITS PERFORMANCE. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE TO ANY TRADING SYSTEM.

The post Interview with Tomas Nesnidal, developer of the Morpheus-1 TF Trading System appeared first on Index Futures Group.

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